Thinking Critically About Models Used to Predict Emergency Evacuation in Gulf Coast States

摘要

Evacuations from Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005 illuminated issues with clearing large numbers of residents via urban area roadways and public transportation systems. In addition, other events including potential terrorists attacks or wildfires need to better understand and predict community evacuation. Much work has been done to improve evacuation times and experiences when the need to evacuate occurs. A number of models exist that forecast evacuation under a variety of scenarios. This work examines the application of these models in Gulf Coast states and discusses future direction for improving their use by government officials. Further, an assessment of evacuations during Hurricanes Rita and Ike is included that makes use of an index comparing evacuation travel time to average daily peak travel time.