Development of a Systems Risk Methodology for Single and Multi-Modal Transportation Systems

摘要

The study was originally conceived with the objective of developing a quantitative procedure for the predictive risk assessment of a given or proposed transportation system. The availability of such a tool for the prediction of expected accident rates is intended to be used for evaluating the effects of specific factors on the level of safety of specific systems (either existing or proposed), and also for extrapolating prior accident statistics in the planning and design of new or expanded systems. During the first year of the program, the overall framework for the systematic risk analysis has been developed, information required for the successful application of the risk model has been delineated and a preliminary determination of the required information base has been identified and developed. Trial or preliminary implementation of the basic risk model to each of the transportation modes under study (air, highway and rail) was examined.