Development of a spatial risk assessment tool for the transportation of hydrocarbons: Methodology and implementation in a geographical information system

摘要

The transportation of dangerous goods is a complex issue involving various potential consequences for a wide range of high-stake elements. Most particularly, hydrocarbon transportation requires the carrying out of a global study in order to assess the risks involved. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction code for analyzing different possible hydrocarbon supply routes in order to determine whether modifying the flow of hydrocarbon transportation significantly increases the risk (for people, infrastructure and the environment). On the one hand, this paper details the methodology proposed for assessing risk levels using hazard scenarios and the vulnerability of high-stake elements. On the other hand, it presents the modeling tool developed (CARTENJEUX), based on an existing geographical information system (MapInfo), through a case study (Paris, France). Several maps (severity of accident, vulnerability and risk levels) generated using CARTENJEUX are presented in order to illustrate how stakeholders can determine preferential routes at regional scale.