Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, March 2012: Red Meat and Poultry Production Lower in 2012, Beef and Poultry Prices Higher

摘要

Beef cow slaughter may be declining, and heifer retention to replace cows may be in early stages. Cattle feeding margins are improving for the short term, but packers are likely still seeing red. Retail prices may also be encountering some consumer resistance. U.S. beef exports for 2012 are forecast at 2.76 billion pounds, fractionally below year-earlier levels. Export levels are expected to tighten in line with domestic beef production levels. U.S. beef imports are expected to be 9 percent higher this year than in 2011, a historically low year for beef import levels. Consumer demand remained solid in the first two months of 2012. Despite higher pork supplies, prices for hogs were year-over-year higher. Consumers paid year-over-year higher retail prices for larger supplies of pork in January. Pork exports in January were 36 percent higher than a year ago, with Japan, Mexico, and China the three largest destination markets. First-quarter prices for 51- to 52-percent live equivalent hogs are expected to be $63-$64 per cwt, almost 6 percent above the same period last year. Broiler meat production fell slightly in January. Broiler production for 2012 is estimated to be lower than a year earlier through the first three quarters of the year. The estimates for quarterly 2012 turkey meat production were increased from February, boosting total production to 5.9 billion pounds. Ending stocks for January showed whole turkey inventories up 30 percent. Table egg production rose in January and wholesale prices are expected to strengthen with the approach of the Easter holiday period. Lamb and mutton production is expected to increase leading up to the Easter and Passover religious holidays. Choice Slaughter lamb prices at San Angelo have declined slightly despite tight supplies. Looking ahead, prices could be negatively impacted by the increasing number of overfinished lambs that are currently in the system.