Computerized Model to Estimate Current Net Migration Rates by Race, Sex, and Age

摘要

The most recent net migration rates available by race, sex, and age at the county level are the 1960 to 1970 rates as developed by Bowles, Beale, and Lee, (1975). However, the migration patterns in many geographic areas have changed considerably from the 1960's to the 1970's. Using the 1960 to 1970 net migration rates to project into the 1980's can be inappropriate. To obtain better estimates of net migration in the 1970's, a flexible migration submodel was developed based on a methodology described in detail in earlier publications (Pittenger, 1974 and 1978). To estimate the current net migration rates of an area, the character of that area is used. Areas of a similar type, e.g., rural, central city, suburban, etc., usually follow similar migration patterns. A set of about a dozen migration patterns was developed that mimicked most net migration flows. Once a pattern was chosen for a particular area, it was scaled by using total net migration estimates for the area. (ERA citation 06:031227)