Representing Uncertainties Using Bayesian Networks

摘要

This report demonstrates the application of Bayesian networks for modelling and reasoning about uncertainties. A scenario for naval anti-surface warfare is constructed and Bayesian networks are used to represent and update uncertainties encountered in the process of situation assessment. Concepts from information theory are used to provide a measure of uncertainty and understand its flow in a Bayesian network. This in turn yields analytical methods to formulate various effectiveness measures.