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Bayesian modeling and uncertainty quantification for descriptivesocial networks

机译:贝叶斯建模和不确定性定量描述社交网络

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摘要

This article presents a simple and easily implementable Bayesian approach to model and quantify uncertainty in small descriptive social networks. While statistical methods for analyzing networks have seen burgeoning activity over the last decade or so, ranging from social sciences to genetics, such methods usually involve sophisticated stochastic models whose estimation requires substantial structure and information in the networks. At the other end of the analytic spectrum, there are purely descriptive methods based upon quantities and axioms in computational graph theory. In social networks, popular descriptive measures include, but are not limited to, the so called Krackhardt’s axioms. Another approach, recently gaining attention, is the use of PageRank algorithms. While these descriptive approaches provide insight into networks with limited information, including small networks, there is, as yet, little research detailing a statistical approach for small networks. This article aims to contribute at the interface of Bayesian statistical inference and social network analysis by offering practicing social scientists a relatively straightforward Bayesian approach to account for uncertainty while conducting descriptive social network analysis. The emphasis is on computationalfeasibility and easy implementation using existing R packages, such as sna andrjags, that are available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (). We analyze anetwork comprising 18 websites from the US and UK to discern transnationalidentities, previously analyzed using descriptive graph theory with nouncertainty quantification, using fully Bayesian model-based inference.
机译:本文提出了一种简单易行的贝叶斯方法,用于对小型描述性社交网络中的不确定性进行建模和量化。尽管在过去十年左右的时间里,用于分析网络的统计方法的活动迅速发展,从社会科学到遗传学不等,但这些方法通常涉及复杂的随机模型,其估计需要网络中的大量结构和信息。在分析范围的另一端,存在基于计算图论中的数量和公理的纯粹描述性方法。在社交网络中,流行的描述性措施包括但不限于所谓的Krackhardt公理。最近引起关注的另一种方法是使用PageRank算法。尽管这些描述性方法提供了对信息有限的网络(包括小型网络)的洞察力,但迄今为止,很少有研究详细介绍小型网络的统计方法。本文旨在通过为实践中的社会科学家提供相对简单的贝叶斯方法来解决不确定性,同时进行描述性的社会网络分析,从而为贝叶斯统计推断与社会网络分析的接口做出贡献。重点是计算使用现有的R软件包(例如sna和rjag,可从综合R存档网络()获得。我们分析一个该网络包含来自美国和英国的18个网站,以识别跨国公司身份,以前使用描述性图论进行了分析,没有不确定性量化,使用完全基于贝叶斯模型的推断。

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