Development of a Non-High School Diploma Graduate Pre-Enlistment Screening Model to Enhance the Future Force

摘要

This paper describes a new attrition screen for non-high school diploma graduate (NHSDG) applicants for service in the U.S. Army. A sample of 21,432 NHSDG Army accessions from FY00 through FY03 was used in the model development process. The new screen combines several indicators of adaptability from the motivational, mental, and physical fitness domains to forecast the likelihood of an NHSDG applicant failing to complete his or her first term of enlistment. Results indicate that a 40% screen would reduce overall NHSDG attrition by nearly 20% (15.3% vs. 18.9%) without adverse impact on minorities, and would close the gap between the attrition rates of NHSDG and high school diploma graduates by nearly 60%. Implementation options for FY05 and future directions are discussed.