Modelling Differential Exposure and Differential Sensitivity Characteristics in Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Incidence

摘要

A mathematical non-melanoma skin cancer incidence model is derived which includes the effects of differential exposure and differential sensitivity in the white population of a given geographic region. These effects, and their variations with geographic region, are shown to be fundamental to an understanding of the behavior of skin cancer incidence as it exists today and as it would be predicted to increase in the event of a decrease in stratospheric ozone. The model is applied to available New York City data to determine the representation in the population of nine postulated exposure-sensitivity groups. The effects of changes in exposure and sensitivity parameters on incidence are illustrated by comparing New York City with a hypothetical rural region at the same latitude. The effect of not eliminating non-solar-related skin cancers in skin cancer incidence data on the prediction of increased incidence due to stratospheric ozone reduction is found to introduce an error which may be positive or negative. Programs which should be pursued in order to effectively utilize the mathematical model are recommended. Areas requiring urgent attention include UV-B instrumentation, skin cancer pathology, skin cancer data collection and classification, and population exposure surveys. (Author)