Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA's Risk Management Analysis Tool and Associated Methods.

摘要

In establishing the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in 2002, Congress directed DHS to develop risk-management principles for protecting critical infrastructure sectors such as transportation. This requirement was elaborated by Homeland Security Presidential Directive 7, the National Infrastructure Protection Plan, and other legislation and policies. These highlighted the importance of developing reliable and valid assessments of security risks that account systematically for the threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences to which transportation systems and other critical infrastructure are exposed. Early DHS and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) risk-analysis efforts revealed the complexity of critical infrastructure risks when threats involve intelligent adversaries who may adapt to security countermeasures and whose number, location, and intentions are poorly known. Tools such as the Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection and TSA s National Transportation Sector Risk Analysis were soon abandoned because of the challenges of accurately measuring key inputs, such as the likelihoods of different attack scenarios and the expected direct and indirect consequences of successful attacks.