Statistical Models for Predicting the Change in Mean Motion of a Satellite over Time Including the Effects of Solar Flux.

摘要

This investigation derived a simple model to determine the change in mean motion over time when the actual values are unknown. A method was developed to include effects of solar flux by calculating an average value of n over 30 days. The model requires a knowledge of the mean motion for about 30 days before the time of interest to calculate this average. The analysis was done using BMDP on a CDC Cyber 6000 computer using element set data from actual satellites. This model does not attempt absolute accuracy, but is intended to be a method to quickly approximate a new mean motion when real values are not available. A limitation of this model is the amount of historical data and analyst judgement which are required.