Expected Value Analysis for an Unmanned Expendable Launch Vehicle Payload Escape System

摘要

Since the beginning of the U.S. Space Program there have been numerous schemes for humans to escape from spacecraft in distress. This has not been the case for payloads of unmanned, expendable launch vehicles (ELV). The literature review revealed no concepts or design in the U.S. Space Program for saving or salvaging unmanned payloads if an ELV failed during the boost phase. The purpose of this thesis was to develop a methodology to define a mathematical cost relation for a payload escape system (PES). That relation demonstrates when it is economically feasible to use a payload escape system. This methodology draws heavily upon Decision Analysis Techniques, although a classical decision analysis involving a decision maker was not performed. A mathematical relation was developed for two launch cases: the first assumed 100 percent insurance coverage for losses and the other assumed no insurance coverage for losses. The study found that the mathematical relations could be used to develop graphs defining when it is economically feasible to use a PES. The model is flexible and could be modified for use with a particular payload program.