Application of the largest Lyapunov exponent and non-linear fractal extrapolation algorithm to short-term load forecasting

摘要

Precise short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in unit commitment, maintenance and economic dispatch problems. Employing a subjective and arbitrary predictive step size is one of the most important factors causing the low forecasting accuracy. To solve this problem, the largest Lyapunov exponent is adopted to estimate the maximal predictive step size so that the step size in the forecasting is no more than this maximal one. In addition, in this paper a seldom used forecasting model, which is based on the non-linear fractal extrapolation (NLFE) algorithm, is considered to develop the accuracy of predictions. The suitability and superiority of the two solutions are illustrated through an application to real load forecasting using New South Wales electricity load data from the Australian National Electricity Market. Meanwhile, three forecasting models: the gray model, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average approach and the support vector machine method, which received high approval in STLF, are selected to compare with the NLFE algorithm. Comparison results also show that the NLFE model is outstanding, effective, practical and feasible.