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首页> 外文期刊>Mathematical Biosciences: An International Journal >CARRIER-BORNE EPIDEMIC MODELS INCORPORATING POPULATION MOBILITY
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CARRIER-BORNE EPIDEMIC MODELS INCORPORATING POPULATION MOBILITY

机译:携带人口流动性的携带传染病的流行模型

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A study was made of multigroup epidemic models in which individuals are able to move between groups, infectious contact occurring only between an infective and a susceptible in the same group. Because of the mathematical intractability of such models, we look mainly at the number of susceptibles directly contacted by the infectives that are initially introduced into the population, ignoring subsequent infections caused by these newly infected individuals. We thus have a generalization of the carrier-borne epidemic model of Weiss [Biometrics 21:481-491 (1965)]. We consider first a model in which only infectives are able to move, then one in which both infectives and susceptibles move between groups. In each case we study both deterministic and stochastic versions of the model, concentrating mainly on the effect of varying the speed at which individuals move between groups on the number of initial susceptibles contacted. For the case in which only infectives move, the model is compared with a suitably matched model in which there is no movement between groups but infectives are able to infect outside their own group. The paper concludes with remarks on the behavior of the epidemic process if initially susceptible individuals that become infected are able to contribute to the further spread of the disease. [References: 13]
机译:对多组流行病模型进行了研究,其中个体能够在组之间移动,传染性接触仅发生在同一组中的传染性和易感性之间。由于此类模型具有数学上的难点,因此我们主要关注最初引入人群中的传染性疾病直接接触的易感性数量,而忽略了这些新感染的个体造成的后续感染。因此,我们对Weiss的携带者流行模型进行了概括[Biometrics 21:481-491(1965)]。我们首先考虑只有一种传染性才能够移动的模型,然后是一种传染性和易感性在群体之间移动的模型。在每种情况下,我们都研究模型的确定性版本和随机版本,主要集中于改变个体在群体之间移动的速度对最初接触的易感者数量的影响。对于仅感染者移动的情况,将模型与适当匹配的模型进行比较,在模型中,各组之间没有移动,但感染者可以在自己的组外感染。本文以流行病过程的行为作为结束语,如果最初被感染的易感人群能够为疾病的进一步传播做出贡献。 [参考:13]

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