Ask an Economist

摘要

THE FIRST QUESTIONS THAT PEOPLE ARE ASKING RIGHT NOW ARE, "Do we face a near-recession in the near-future, or is talk of a recession (partly due to housing pressures) overblown? Will business spending slow by the end of the year?" The U.S. economy is in better shape than most people think it is. The downturn in the housing market delivered a significant body blow, but we have largely absorbed that, at least for now. It is not hard to imagine that in past decades, this would have sent us into a recession. But this time, we have "taken the hit" and are continuing to grow, albeit at a noticeably slower pace. To put this in context, the decline in housing starts over the last 16 months is the steepest in the post-World War II period, and yet gross domestic product (GDP) and Industrial Production are continuing to grow. That is amazing staying power.