Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Waterlogging Risk in Coastal Cities: A Case Study of Guangzhou, South China

摘要

Climate warming is expected to occur with an increased magnitude of extreme precipitation and sea level rise, which leads to an increased probability of waterlogging in coastal cities. In this paper, a combined probability model is developed to evaluate the impact of climate change on waterlogging in Guangzhou by using eight climate models with four emissions scenarios [ Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ( SRES) scenario A1B and representative concentration pathway ( RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5]. The copula method was applied to derive the bivariate distributions of extreme rainfall and tidal level. The uncertainty in the projected future temperature, extreme rainfall, sea level, and the combined extreme rainfall and tidal level probability were discussed. The results show that although there is a large uncertainty driven by both climate models and emissions scenarios in the projection of climate change, most modeling results predict an increase in temperature and extreme precipitation in Guangzhou during the future period of 2020-50, relative to the historical period of 1970-2000. Moreover, greater increases are projected for higher emissions scenarios. The sea level is projected to increase in the range of 11.40-23.37 cm during the period 2020-50, consistent with climate warming. Both simultaneous probability and waterlogging probability are projected to show an upward trend in the future period 2020-50, with the largest and smallest increases in the RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios, respectively. The results of this paper provide a new scientific reference for waterlogging control in Guangzhou under climate change conditions.