Impact of Climate Change on Maize Production in Northeast and Southwest China and Risk Mitigation Strategies

摘要

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on maize production through 2030 with production functions for two important maize-producing regions in China: the Northeast region and the Southwest region. Variations in geographic, climatic, and socioeconomic conditions within the large country imply, however, that the impacts on maize production will likely be the opposite for the two regions. This finding challenges the prevalent view that the climate change has a universally negative effect on Chinese agriculture and implies that a higher flexibility of maize producing timing and a better regional adaptation to climate change in Southwest region could offset or even to outweigh the potential reduction of maize production in the Northeast region. It suggests that advanced inter-regional contracts and cooperation and of policies to stabilize regional agricultural labour force could be a cost-efficient risk mitigation strategy to mitigate the potential reduction of overall national maize production.