Spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Brazil during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods

摘要

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was responsible for the first global flu pandemic in 21st century affecting all the world. In Brazil, A(H1N1)pdm09 is still circulating as a seasonal virus, causing deaths every year. Nevertheless, the viral diffusion process that yearly seeds new influenza strains in the country was not investigated yet. The aim of the current study was to describe the phylodynamics and phylogeography of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Brazil between 2009 and 2014. Neuraminidase sequences from Brazil and other regions of the World were retrieved and analyzed. Bayesian phylogeographic and phylodynamic model approaches were used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal and demographic history of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Brazil (divided in subtropical and tropical regions) and related countries. Our analyses reveal that new influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 lineages are seeded in Brazil in almost each year and the main sources of viral diversity are North America, Europe and East Asia. The phylogeographic asymmetric model also revealed that Brazil, mainly the subtropical region, seeds viral lineages into other countries. Coalescent analysis of the compiled dataset reconstructed the peak of viral transmissions in the winter months of Southern hemisphere. The results presented in this study can be informative to public health, guide intervention strategies and in the understanding of flu virus migration, which helps to predict antigenic drift and consequently the developing of new vaccines.