Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

Spinoni Jonathan; Vogt Jürgen V.; Naumann Gustavo; Barbosa Paulo; Dosio Alessandro

摘要

ABSTRACT >As a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the 21st century. This study investigates changes in drought occurrence, frequency, and severity in Europe in the next decades. A combined indicator based on the predominance of the drought signal over normal/wet conditions has been used. The indicator, which combines the standardized precipitation index (SPI, which accounts for anomalous low rainfall), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI, which accounts for high temperatures and scarce precipitations), and the reconnaissance drought indicator (RDI, similar to SPEI but more affected by extreme events), has been computed at 3‐ and 12‐month accumulation scales to characterize trends in seasonal and annual events from 1981 to 2100. Climate data from 11 bias‐adjusted high‐resolution (0.11°) simulations from the EURO‐CORDEX (coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment) have been used in the analyses. For each simulation, the frequency and severity of drought and extreme drought events for 1981–2010, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 have been analysed. Under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5), droughts are projected to become increasingly more frequent and severe in the Mediterranean area, western Europe, and Northern Scandinavia, whereas the whole European continent, with the exception of Iceland, will be affected by more frequent and severe extreme droughts under the most severe emission scenario (RCP8.5), especially after 2070. Seasonally, drought frequency is projected to increase everywhere in Europe for both scenarios in spring and summer, especially over southern Europe, and less intensely in autumn; on the con </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”xml：lang =“en”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >作为一个近期过去和不可持续的土地管理的气候变化的结果，干旱成为最受影响力最大的灾害之一，并随着预计的全球变暖，预计到21世纪末，预计逐步导致损失更多。本研究调查了未来几十年欧洲干旱发生，频率和严重程度的变化。已经使用了基于干旱信号在正常/潮湿条件下的主要介质的组合指示。结合标准化降水指数（SPI的指标，标准化降雨量，标准化降水蒸馏蒸腾指数（SPEI，占高温和稀缺沉淀的沉淀），以及侦察干旱指标（RDI，类似于SPEI，但已经受到极端事件的影响），已经在3岁和12个月的积累量表中计算，以表征1981年至2100年的季节性和年度事件的趋势。来自欧元的11个偏见调整的高分辨率（0.11°）模拟的气候数据-Cordex（协调区域气候镇压实验）已用于分析。对于每种模拟，已经分析了1981 - 2010,2041-2070和2071-2100的干旱和极端干旱事件的频率和严重程度。根据中等排放情景（RCP4.5），预计干旱在地中海地区，西欧和北·斯堪的纳维亚州越来越频繁，严重，而整个欧洲大陆除了冰岛，将受到更多的影响在最严重的发射场景（RCP8.5）下经常和严重的极端干旱，特别是在2070年之后。季节性地，在春季和夏季的两种情景中，季节性地，干旱频率将增加，特别是在欧洲南欧，秋季不太强烈;在Con. </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" > 著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第4期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b> <span>共19页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Spinoni Jonathan&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Spinoni Jonathan;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Vogt Jürgen V.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Vogt Jürgen V.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Naumann Gustavo&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Naumann Gustavo;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Barbosa Paulo&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Barbosa Paulo;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Dosio Alessandro&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dosio Alessandro;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>European CommissionJoint Research CentreIspra Italy;</p> <p>European CommissionJoint Research CentreIspra Italy;</p> <p>European CommissionJoint Research CentreIspra Italy;</p> <p>European CommissionJoint Research CentreIspra Italy;</p> <p>European CommissionJoint Research CentreIspra Italy;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span> <a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学 ;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate projections&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate projections;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate scenarios&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate scenarios;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=drought&option=203" rel="nofollow">drought;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=EURO‐CORDEX&option=203" rel="nofollow">EURO‐CORDEX;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Europe&option=203" rel="nofollow">Europe;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：气候预测;气候情景;干旱;欧洲驯料;欧洲; 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Ayantobo</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Olusola Olaitan&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,Olusola Olaitan</a> <span> . 2018</span> </span> </div> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/061204223431.html">一种基于三维干旱体结构的干旱事件识别方法</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN111598999B </span> <span> . 2021.01.26</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120104175451.html">一种基于三维干旱体结构的干旱事件识别方法</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN111598999A </span> <span> . 2020-08-28</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130427677733.html">EUROPEAN CHROMOSOME CHIP AND ("Y-EUROPEAN CHIP") AND PROCEDURE FOR THE GENOTIPATE OF Y-SNPS (SINGLE NUCLEOTIDE POLYMORPHISMS) THAT DETERMINE THE MOST FREQUENT HOPLOGRUPES IN EUROPE THROUGH DNA CHIPS.</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  ES2318914B1 </span> <span> . 2010-02-19</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：欧洲染色体芯片和（“ Y-欧洲芯片”）以及通过DNA芯片确定欧洲最常见的H-LOGP的Y-SNPS（单核苷酸多态性）基因组的程序。 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130430126243.html">European chip of chromosome and ("y-european chip") and procedure for the genotypping of y-snps (single nucleotide polymorphisms) that determine the most frequent haplogruphs in europe through dna chips. (Machine-translation by Google Translate, not legally binding)</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  ES2318914A1 </span> <span> . 2009-05-01</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：欧洲染色体和（“ y-欧洲芯片”）芯片以及y-snps（单核苷酸多态性）的基因分型方法，可通过dna芯片确定欧洲最常见的抄写。（通过Google翻译进行机器翻译，没有法律约束力） </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130414032460.html">Singularity method for preventing vehicle theft and ensure trouble-free movement of vehicles (cars, planes, motorcycles, etc.) to various emergency situations, including severe weather events (storms, fog, GRAD, snowfall, ice, ETC.) EMERGENCY stretch of road, if on the roadway of animals and birds On the Protection of the car, driver, passenger inside the vehicle and pedestrian traffic from death and severe injuries in emergency conditions when car collision with a pedestrian can not be prevented, to the exclusion of visiting MOVING driver of the car, HEALTH STATUS that do not allow trouble-free to drive a car</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  RU2013159009A </span> <span> . 2015-07-10</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：防止车辆被盗并确保车辆（汽车，飞机，摩托车等）在各种紧急情况下（包括严重天气事件（暴风雨，大雾，GRAD，降雪，冰冻等）的无故障行驶的奇异方法）道路上（如果在动物和鸟类的道路上）在保护汽车，驾驶员，车内乘客和行人交通中，在紧急情况下无法防止与行人碰撞时造成死亡和重伤，不包括在汽车行驶中的驾驶员，健康状况，不允许无故障驾驶汽车 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> 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