QUO VADIS 511? - A POLICY ACTION PLAN TO SAVE THE 511 SERVICE

摘要

Challenges are foreseen for 511. As well as the increasing propogation of private sector services, the difficulties in accurate technology forecasting could also complicate future policy implementation. Technology forecasting can be a tricky business, as the following expert opinions aptly show. In 1943, Thomas Wilson, the then chairman of IBM, said, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Back in 1977, Ken Olson - at the time the president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp - commented, " There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." Perhaps the most famous of all comes courtesy of Microsoft's very own Bill Gates, who in 1981 thught that "640K ought to be enough (storage) for anybody".