Spanish Smoking Ban Poses Downside Risks To Tobacco And Restaurant Spending

摘要

1.As Spain battles with a significant increase in the number of Covid-19 cases, numerous autonomous communities across the country have implemented a ban on smoking in public areas in August 2020. 2.This measure includes a ban on smoking in the street and in/around bars, cafes and restaurants, if a two-metre distance between people cannot be maintained. 3.We highlight that the smoking ban poses a downside risk to tobacco spending and restaurants and hotel spending over 2020. 4.As a result of the pandemic, and subsequent economic crisis, we were already forecasting consumer spending on tobacco to decrease by -2.1 % y-o-y in Spain in 2020, a downward revision on our pre-Covid-19 forecast of 2.1 % y-o-y growth for 2020. 5.Over the medium term (2020-2024), we forecast tobacco spending to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 0.8% over 2020-2024, driven by expected increases in tobacco retail prices.