Bayesian System Reliability Assessment Method with Maximum Entropy as Prior Distribution

摘要

Bayesian system reliability assessment method with maximum entropy as prior distribution is developed in the present analysis. The system reliability assessment model is established, and the method and process of system reliability assessment are put forward. The method is based on the theory of information entropy. The probability density function and distribution function of system reliability parameters are given by using maximum entropy method. Prior distribution of Bayesian analysis method is the distribution function. Likelihood function is given by a small amount of field test data. According to Bayesian methods, posterior distribution is determined by using prior distribution and likelihood function. The point estimation and interval estimation of system reliability parameters are calculated in order to evaluate the system reliability. The method solves better the problem of system reliability assessment for small sample cases, and is an optimum method for reliability assessment of large and complex systems.