Short-Term National Airspace System Delay Prediction Using Weather Impacted Traffic Index

摘要

THE National Airspace System (NAS) has been studied both forrnidentifying the air traffic delaymodels and for improving the airrntraffic flow management efficiencies. Studies show that 70% of allrndelays in the NAS are related to weather and, of these, 60% arerncaused by convective weather [1]. For good weather days, factorsrnother than weather, including air traffic demand–capacityrnimbalances, equipment outages, and runway conditions also havernto be characterized. To guide flow control decisions and developrnstrategies to reduce delays, cancellations, and other costs during thernday of operations in variousweather conditions, it is useful to create arnreal-time delay predictionmodel and provide the delay prediction forrnseveral hours.