Predicting Profit Performance for Selecting Candidate International Construction Projects

摘要

International projects are inherently exposed to unpredictable and complicated risk scenarios. To minimize possible losses due to these risk exposures, construction firms have their own procedures or basic tools for selecting potential projects, but they are usually based on the experience and knowledge of the firm's engineers and decision makers that are often very subjective and lack scientific basis. This paper presents a quantitative profit prediction model for the early stage of an international project as a systematic risk-screening tool that involves the processes of defining, analyzing, and evaluating various profit-influencing risk variables. Various successful and unsuccessful international project cases with respect to profit levels are collected. Then, a scale-based profit prediction model to select candidate overseas projects is developed through factor analysis and a multiple regression analysis. Finally, this paper provides implications for global project management and lessons learned from case studies to improve profitability for international projects.