Development of a Predictive Model Describing the Growth of Listeria Monocytogenes in Kimbab

摘要

This study is to develop mathematical models to predict the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in kimbab as a function of storage temperature. Kimbab which was inoculated with L. monocytogenes were incubated at 4, 10, 15, and 30℃. The primary model showed a good fit (R~2=0.9845 to 0.9967) to a Gompertz equation to obtain specific growth rates (SGR) and lag time (LT) at each temperature. The SGR of L. monocytogenes in the kimbab increased and LT decreased by increasing temperature. Secondary polynomial model was developed using PRISM general nonlinear analysis software for SGR and LT. The secondary models were 0.1479-(0.02457×Temp)+(0.001296 ×Temp~2) for SGR and 312.8-(30.21×Temp)+(0.6654×Temp~2) for LT. This secondary polynomial model was judged as appropriate based on the coefficient of determination (R~2 of the SGR and LT model=0.9995, 0.9556), the bias factor (B_f of the SGR and LT model=0.97, 0.94), and the accuracy factor (A_f of the SGR and LT model=1.10, 1.68). Reliable predictions of L. monocytogenes SGR and LT in kimbab were based on temperature.