Prediction of solar activity on the basis of spectral characteristics of sunspot number

摘要

Prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 23 and 24 isperformed on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectralcomponents. Sunspot number data during 1933-1996 periods (solar cycles17-22) are searched for periodicities by iterative regression. The periodssignificant at the 95% confidence level were used in a sum of sine seriesto reconstruct sunspot series, to predict the strength of solar cycles 23 and24. The maximum peak of solar cycles is adequately predicted (cycle 21: 158±13.2against an observed peak of 155.4; cycle 22: 178<±13.2against 157.6 observed). Solar cycle 23 was predicted to have a peak in 2000with maximum amplitude of 125±13.2, in good agreement with the 119.6observed. The minimum of solar cycle 23 is predicted to occur around2007-2008. For solar cycle 24, the maximum is predicted to occur in 2012(115±13.2) or 2013 (117±13.2) and this shall be a very weaksolar cycle.