The Sunspot Activity in the Last Two Millenia on the Basis of Indirect and Instrumental Indexes: Time Series Models and Their Extrapolations for the 21st Century

摘要

In the present study a time series analysis of thiee of the most well-known Sun activity data series is made: 1) the Hoyt-Schatten (Group Sunspot Number Rg)(Royt & Schatten 1988); 2) the Schove and 3) the Greenland (Dye-3 ice probe) 'cosmogenic' 10Be concentration series (Schove 1983, Beer et al. 1998). The series "1" is based on instrumental observations for the last ~400 years. The series "2" is a reconstruction of all Schwabe-Wolf cycle magnitudes after AD 296 by use of historical reports mainly for auroras and naked-eye visible sunspots. The series "3" is an indicator for the processes in outer solar corona and interplanetary space for the epoch AD 1423-1985. Two independent methods for time series analysis are used: 1) the T-R periodogramm analysis (Komitov, 1986); 2) the method of Kaftan (2002).