Evaluating the Impact of Uncertainty on Risk Prediction: Towards More Robust Prediction Models

摘要

Risk prediction models are crucial for assessing the pretest probability of cancer and are applied to stratify patient management strategies. These models are frequently based on multivariate regression analysis, requiring that all risk factors be specified, and do not convey the confidence in their predictions. We present a framework for uncertainty analysis that accounts for variability in input values. Uncertain or missing values are replaced with a range of plausible values. These ranges are used to compute individualized risk confidence intervals. We demonstrate our approach using the Gail model to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on management decisions. Up to 13% of cases (uncertain) had a risk interval that falls within the decision threshold (e.g., 1.67% 5-year absolute risk). A small number of cases changed from low- to high-risk when missing values were present. Our analysis underscores the need for better communication of input assumptions that influence the resulting predictions.