基于能源消费的长三角地区碳排放趋势研究

摘要

采用IPCC碳排放技术指南提供的能源消费碳排放计算公式对长三角地区1996年—2010年能源消费的碳排放量进行计算,在此基础上分别建立灰色预测GM（1,1）模型和Gompertz曲线模型预测和分析长三角地区未来碳排放趋势。长三角地区能源消费碳排放量正处于而且还将处于持续增长阶段,短期内难以达到峰值;长三角地区应积极发展新能源,逐步降低煤炭在能源消费中的比重,进一步优化能源消费结构,控制和降低能源消费碳排放量。%The formula for calculating carbon emission from energy consumption in the Guide to Carbon Emission published by the UN IPCC was employed to calculate the carbon emission caused by energy consumption from 1996 to 2010 in the Yangtze Delta,and the gray forecast model GM（1,1） together with Gompertz Curve Model was adopted to predict and analyze the future trend of the carbon emission from energy consumption in the region.The study suggests that the carbon emission from energy consumption in the Yangtze Delta is currently in a stage of steady growth,which will not reach its peak in short term.Active efforts should be made to develop new energy sources in order to lower the percentage of carbon consumption,further optimize the energy consumption structure,and control and reduce the volume of carbon emission caused by energy consumption.