“丝绸之路经济带”框架下中国与中亚五国能源效率评价--基于 CCR-BCC 和 Malmquist 指数分析方法的 DEA-Tobit 模型

摘要

基于 CCR-BCC 和 Malmquist 指数法的 DEA-Tobit 模型，测算丝绸之路经济带中国与中亚五国全要素能源效率的变化分解和影响因素。通过数据分析发现，在2000－2012年间，各国能源效率都处于上升趋势，其中中国、哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦能源效率一直在提升，并且不断逼近能源效率的前沿面。技术进步和技术效率分别对能源效率具有正向和负向作用。在对影响因素的研究中发现，政府影响力和能源结构对能源效率具有显著的负向影响，而产业结构和社会经济发展水平与能源效率存在显著的正相关关系。%Improving energy efficiency is an important way to solve global energy predicament.At the same time,it is also the important content of sustainable development of the Silk Road Economic Belt.By means of taking the data of China and Five Countries in the central Asia on the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2000 to 2012,we measured the total factor energy efficiency and its fluctuation by the method of the DEA-Tobit based on CCR-BCC model and Malmquist productivity index.The results show that the improving of total factor energy efficiency in China and Five Countries in the central Asia on the Silk Road Economic Belt is attributed to the technological progress.The total factor energy efficiency of China and the five central Asian countries stands in the efficient frontier and shows a rising tendency,such as China, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.We found that the decreasing of Technical efficiency has significant negative impacts on total factor energy efficiency.The opening degree and technological advance plays a positive role in improving total factor energy efficiency.We also found that the influence of government and energy structure play a negative role in improving total factor energy efficiency,on the contrary,the size of economy and industrial structure have significant positive impacts on total factor energy efficiency.