公共政策变迁间断-平衡模型的修正及应用--兼论新中国科研政策变迁的渐进与突变规律

摘要

The Punctuated Equilibrium analytical framework of public policy is based on the“tripartite”political system and federalism of United States. The existing analytical framework is limited to explore the tendency of American public policy change. This essay tries to amend the original framework from aspects of application condition, theoretical assumption, the process of policy change and primary cause, and the application condition expands stable political institution structure in the revised framework. This paper uses the revised framework to explore the general regularity of scientific research policy change in New China from 1949 and achieves two goals:First, a revised analytical framework of the Punctuated Equilibrium is got; Second, through exploring the change of scientific research policy in New China from 1949, a new theoretical tool could be applied in the exploration of Chinese public policy change.%公共政策变迁间断—平衡分析框架是以美国三权分立和联邦制政治制度为基础构建的，原分析框架限定于考察美国公共政策变迁趋势。尝试从适用条件、理论假设、变迁过程和根本原因等维度对间断—平衡分析框架予以修正，将修正后分析框架的适用条件扩大为稳定的政治制度结构，同时用修正后的分析框架考察新中国建立以来科研政策变迁的总体规律性。这样就达致了两个目的：一是修正和检验公共政策变迁间断—平衡分析框架；二是考察新中国建立以来科研政策变迁趋势，并为解释公共政策变迁提供新的理论工具。