基于生命周期理论,结合我国养老保险制度的变迁历程,使用2006-2015年我国的宏观面板数据,利用养老保险基金支出、养老保险覆盖率及养老保险缴费率等变量建立模型,分析养老保险制度与城镇居民消费之间的关系.实证分析结果表明:增加养老保险基金支出、完善养老保险覆盖率可以改善城镇居民的消费水平;养老保险基金支出的边际消费倾向小于当期可支配收入对城镇居民消费的影响,表明收入水平是影响城镇居民当期消费的重要因素.完善社会保障制度、拓宽养老金保值增值渠道、扩大居民收入来源、减少居民预防性储蓄、提高居民消费水平是保持经济高速增长的必由之路.%Based on the life cycle theory,combined with the evolution of our country's endowment insurance system, and using the macroscopic panel data of 31 provinces from 2006 to 2015,this paper takes endowment Insurance fund expenditure,pension insurance coverage and pension contribution rate as variables to establish the model and analyzes the relationship between the endowment insurance system and the urban resident's consumption. The results of empiri-cal analysis show that increasing the expenditure of endowment insurance fund and perfecting the pension insurance coverage can improve the consumption level of the urban residents; the marginal consumption tendency of pension fund expenditure is less than the effect of current disposable income on urban residents' consumption,which indicates that the level of income is an imporant factor affecting the urban resident's consumtion. Perfecting the social security system,diversifying the pension fund investment,enlarging the income source of the residents and reducing the resi-dents' precautionary saving to improve their consumption level are the necessary ways to maintain high economic growth.
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