扩大对外开放背景下中国银行业系统性风险的预警与防范

摘要

Since 2017, the central government has released a policy signal to continue to expand opening-up of finance, in which the banking sector cancelled the restriction on the proportion of foreign shareholders.However, while paying attention to the bonus of reform and opening-up, it is necessary to make early warning and prevention of risks under the opening-up conditions.Looking back on the experiences and lessons of the opening-up of banking at domestic and abroad, this paper indicates that the opening-up does not pose substantial risks to financial security, but in order to adapt to the opening-up policy, a "second line of defense" should be built such as the security review mechanism.Looking into the inside system, the superposition of banking risks can trigger the Minsky moment.Thus, strict control of shadow banking requires the banking sector to improve its competitiveness and stable operation level to prevent the outbreak of systemic risks.%2017年以来,中央释放出继续扩大金融开放的政策信号,其中银行业已取消外资持股比例限制.但是,在重视改革开放"红利"的同时,有必要对开放条件下的潜在风险做出预警和防范.回顾国内外银行业对外开放的经验与教训,本文认为对外开放尚不构成威胁金融安全的实质性风险,但为了与开放政策相适应,应构建安全审查机制等"第二道防线";审视内部,银行业表外风险叠加或可引发明斯基时刻,为此,应切实严格管控影子银行,要求银行业提高自身竞争力与稳健运营水平,防止爆发系统性风险.