计及气象因素的输电线路故障概率的实时评估模型

摘要

输电线路的实时故障概率的计算是进行电力系统在线风险评估以及实时可靠性计算的重要组成部分。为了计算输电线路的实时故障概率值，根据输电线路的绝缘子、导线、避雷器、杆塔、地线的在线监测数据，分别建立了各个监测量的量化模型，采用未确知有理数理论去确定每层的权重系数，并结合模糊评估法，建立了输电线路实时故障概率的层次评估模型。分析南方电网的故障统计数据，恶劣天气已经成为引起输电线路故障的重要因素。在考虑恶劣天气对输电线路故障概率影响的情况下，提出并建立了考虑输电线路在线监测数据和当前气象条件的输电线路故障概率的实时评估模型。实例分析表明了所提出的输电线实时故障概率评估模型的合理性和有效性。%The calculation of transmission line’s real-time fault probability is an important part of real-time risk assessment and reliability calculation of power system. In order to calculate the real-time fault probability value of transmission line, first of all, according to the online monitoring data of the transmission line’s insulator, conductor, lightning arrester, tower, and ground line, the quantitative model of each monitoring parameter is established respectively. Then the theory of unascertained rational numbers is used to determine the weight coefficient of each layer, and combining with fuzzy assessment method, finally a real-time and hierarchical fault probability assessment model of transmission line is established. Through analyzing the failure statistics data of southern power grid, it is found that bad weather has become an important factor causing the fault of transmission line. Considering the effects of bad weather on transmission line’s fault probability, this paper puts forward and sets up a real-time evaluation model of transmission line’s fault probability considering both transmission line’s on-line monitoring data and the current meteorological conditions. The example shows that the proposed transmission line’s real-time failure probability assessment model is reasonable and effective.