微电网脆弱性预评估方法

摘要

对未来某一时刻的微电网运行状态和脆弱程度作出准确评估,有利于发现薄弱环节,实现系统自愈运行.基于微电网模型与特性,提出基于风险理论的微电网脆弱性预评估方法.首先对微电网脆弱性进行定义,其次根据微电网各脆弱事件发生的概率及造成的后果严重度,建立微电网脆弱性预评估指标体系,包括发电容量充裕度和系统供电脆弱性两大类,最后建立微电网预评估的流程步骤,并通过算例验证评估指标的有效性及合理性.%Precise assessment of the operation and vulnerabil-ity in microgrid at a certain time in the future contributes to find out the weak point in the system in time and realize self-healing opera-tion of microgrid.Based on the characteristics of microgrid,a vulner-ability pre-assessment method for microgrid is proposed.Firstly,the definition of microgrid's vulnerability is given. Then, according to the occurrence probability of every influential event and severity of corresponding results, a vulnerability index system is established, mainly including indices of generation capacity adequacy and indi-ces of power supply vulnerability. Eventually, the procedures and specific steps of vulnerability pre-assessment for microgrid are pre-sented,and its effectiveness and validity is verified by case studies.