人口规模、结构对区域碳排放的影响研究——基于中国省级面板数据的经验分析

摘要

Nowadays,the empirical studies about the impact of demographic factors on carbon emission drawn very different conclusion.Based on this background,an econometric analysis using STIRPAT model will be performed based on data related to carbon emission in 30 provinces from 1997 to 2009,to examining the impact of demographic factors,such as population scale and population structure on regional carbon emission.However,the data have heteroscedasticity,serial and cross-section correction,so we take the corrected fixed model methods made by Driscoll and Kraay.The empirical result shows that： population scale will be unit elasticity when considering the case of population structure,so using Chinese data to verify carbon Kuznets curve will not have too much bias.In variables reflecting population structures,the working-aged population has a significantly positive effect on regional carbon emission,while family size has a significantly negative impact.But the urbanization rate is not significant.%目前关于人口对碳排放影响的经验研究,得出大相径庭的结论。基于这种背景,本文以STIRPAT模型为研究起点,运用中国1997～2009年30个省份的面板数据,采用Driscoll和Kraay基于固定效应中纠正异方差、序列相关和截面相关的估计方法,具体考察了地区人口规模、结构对碳排放量的影响。研究表明,在考虑人口结构因素的情况下,人口规模的排放弹性显著为1,因此,以中国为样本研究碳库兹涅茨曲线（CKC）并不会产生太大偏误。在反映人口结构的变量中,劳动年龄人口对碳排放有显著的正向影响,家庭户规模有显著负向影响,而城镇化率对于碳排放的影响并不显著。