Quantifying the Impacts of Economic Progress, Economic Structure, Urbanization Process, and Number of Vehicles on PM2.5 Concentration: A Provincial Panel Data Model Analysis of China

摘要

With the rapid development of China’s economy, the environmental problems are becoming increasingly prominent, especially the PM2.5 (particulate matter with diameter smaller than 2.5 μm) concentrations that have exerted adverse influences on human health. Considering the fact that PM2.5 concentrations are mainly caused by anthropogenic activities, this paper selected economic growth, economic structure, urbanization, and the number of civil vehicles as the primary factors and then explored the nexus between those variables and PM2.5 concentrations by employing a panel data model for 31 Chinese provinces. The estimated model showed that: (1) the coefficients of the variables for provinces located in North, Central, and East China were larger than that of other provinces; (2) GDP per capita made the largest contribution to PM2.5 concentrations, while the number of civil vehicles made the least contribution; and (3) the higher the development level of a factor, the greater the contribution it makes to PM2.5 concentrations. It was also found that a bi-directional Granger causal nexus exists between PM2.5 concentrations and economic progress as well as between PM2.5 concentrations and the urbanization process for all provinces. Policy recommendations were finally obtained through empirical discussions, which include that provincial governments should adjust the economic and industrial development patterns, restrict immigration to intensive urban areas, decrease the successful proportion of vehicle licenses, and promote electric vehicles as a substitute to petrol vehicles.