重庆市人口规模、结构对碳排放影响的实证研究--基于STIRPAT模型的分析

摘要

Based on the sequence data of 1996-2013 years in Chongqing city. The demographic factors into the STIRPAT mod-el,Using Eviews6.0 software.Using empirical econometric analysis of relationship of population size,population,city rate, the aging rate,per capita consumption, between the carbon emissions intensity and emissions analysis. The result is that:The size of the population to the driving force of carbon emissions in the most significant ,indicating that the growth of Chongqing carbon e-missions are closely related with population. The population of city level and carbon emissions intensity is second ,the third driving force has little influence on the per capita consumption. The aging of the population rate was not statistically significant , but it is certain aging will inevitably impact on carbon emissions ,thus requiring attention. Family size has inhibitory effect on long-term carbon emissions. Finally,according to the result of analysis, and discusses the future of Chongqing City carbon emis-sion reduction strategies,in order to effectively control population factors influence on Chongqing’s carbon emissions growth.%文章以重庆市1996—2013年时间序列数据为基础，将人口结构因素纳入STIRPAT模型，采用Eviews6.0软件，运用计量经济分析方法研究了人口规模、人口城市化率、老龄化率、人均消费额、碳排放强度与碳排放量之间的关系进行实证分析。结果显示：人口规模对碳排放的驱动力最为显著，说明重庆市碳排放量与人口增长存在密切关系；人口城市化水平和碳排放强度为第二、第三驱动力；人均消费额影响较小；人口老龄化率统计学上不显著，但是可以确定的是老龄化必然会对碳排放带来影响，因此，需要对人口老龄化所带来产生的影响加以关注；家庭规模的小型化对长期碳排放具有抑制作用。最后，针对分析结果，探讨了未来重庆市的碳减排策略，以期有效控制人口因素对重庆碳排放增长的影响。