煤炭产量预测与对比分析研究

摘要

为了预测我国的煤炭产量,分别建立了一元线性回归预测模型和灰色理论GM（1,1）模型,并对预测结果进行了比较分析。结果表明,灰色理论GM（1,1）模型较一元线性回归预测模型预测精度更高,更符合我国煤炭产量的发展趋势。灰色理论GM（1,1）模型的煤炭产量预测结果表明,未来2 a我国煤炭产量呈稳定增长趋势,产量分别为34.83亿t和37.82亿t,增长比例分别为7.5%和8.5%。%To predict the coal production in China,one-dimensional linear regression prediction model and GM（1,1）model were established separately,the predicted results were comparative analyzed.The result shows that prediction accuracy of GM（1,1）model is much higher than one-dimensional linear regression prediction model,which is much suitable to predict the development trend of coal production in China.Coal Production prediction result of GM（1,1）model indicates that coal production in China will show a stable increasing trend in the future 2 years.The production is 3.483 billion ton and 3.782 billion ton,and the growth rate is 7.5% and 8.5%,respectively.