住宅价格如何影响城镇居民消费——基于状态空间模型的研究

摘要

Based on time-varying parameter state space model, using the quarterly data from 1999 to 2016, this paper measures the time-varying characteristics of the impact on urban residents'consumption of China's housing price.The results show that on the whole housing prices present a weak wealth effect.Before 2004,the housing prices rising had a strong volatili-ty effect on consumption.After 2004,the effect in our country was rising first,then began to decline after 2013,which roughly presents an inverted"U"type trend.This shows that the crowding-out impact of house prices on consumption has been increas-ing rapidly in recent years.In view of this,from the"crowding-out effect"transmission mechanism,the government should ad-just house price carefully and steadily,increase affordable housing supply,and improve the income of the migrant population in the process of urbanization.%基于时变参数状态空间模型,利用1999—2016年的季度数据测算了我国住宅价格对城镇居民消费影响的时变特征.结果表明,我国住宅价格对消费的影响整体上呈现微弱的财富效应,住宅价格的MPC位于0.0543到0.1155之间.2004年之前住宅价格上升对消费的影响波动剧烈,2004年后大致呈现先上升,2013年后开始下降的"倒U"型趋势.这说明近年来房价上升对消费的挤出效应迅速增强.鉴于此,从挤出效应传导机制入手,政府应该谨慎平稳调整房价、增加保障性住房供给,并提高城镇化进行中外来人口收入.