国际能源转型与中国能源革命

摘要

It is generally believed that the modern energy history has witnessed two energy transitions. Namely, coal that re-placed firewood as the dominant energy resource was the first energy transition,and oil that replaced coal was the second one. At present,the third energy transition,marked by renewable energy,has just lifted its veil to the new century. China,strugg-ling to catch up,has made great progress and become a leader in renewable energy development. This paper gives an analysis of the concept of energy transition,draws lessons from the previous two energy transitions and other nations' successful experience to provide guidance and enlightenment for China's current energy revolution. Guided by the five general rules of motivations, resources endowments,technical conditions,political will,and economic feasibility in reality,China's road of energy transition is doomed to be one with Chinese characteristics.%一般认为,近现代能源史上经历了两次能源转型,即煤炭取代柴薪、石油取代煤炭成为主导能源的能源变革.当前,以可再生能源为代表的第三次国际能源转型正如火如荼地进行.中国奋力赶超,已成为可再生能源发展的引领者.通过厘清能源转型的概念,归纳前两次国际能源转型的规律,总结出国际能源转型的成功经验,为当前中国的能源革命战略提供指导;同时,以动机动力、资源禀赋、技术条件、经济可行、政治意愿五要素作为分析框架,建议中国需要根据特殊国情,走一条具有中国特色的能源转型道路.