环境不确定性对银行经营的作用机理研究

摘要

Based on 222 observations of 74 commercial banks in China from 2011 to 2013, the hierarchical regressions were used to examine the impact of the environmental uncertainty and capital structure on bank performance .The results show that environmental dynamics and complexity significantly influence bank per -formance positively , capital structures play mediating effect between the dynamics and performance .Further studies found significant positive effect on the capital structure of the performance .Under higher environ-mental uncertainty ( dynamics and complexity ) , the impact of capital structure on the performance is more obvious .When facing the uncertain environment , the bank will respond to external changes and the com-plexity of the situation to improve performance by changing the interior .In the background of new normal e-conomy , it is necessary for the banks to improve their management level by building a positive governance mechanism for the companies ( microcosmic ) and creating a good management environment ( macroscopic ) .%基于我国74家商业银行2011－2013年222个观测值，运用层次回归方法检验了环境不确定性、资本结构对银行经营的影响。结果表明：环境动态性、复杂性均显著正向影响银行绩效，资本结构在动态性与绩效之间发挥了中介效应。进一步研究发现，资本结构显著正向影响绩效；在不确定性（动态性、复杂性）较高的环境下，资本结构对绩效的影响越明显。可见，当面临不确定的环境时，银行会通过内部的改变应对外部的变动与复杂状况以提高绩效。由此得到的启示：在经济新常态的背景下，构建一个积极的公司治理机制（微观）和创造良好的经营环境（宏观）是提高银行经营水平的必要措施。