城市路网脆弱性预警

摘要

Building up an early-warning model is very necessary for decreasing the irrecoverable damage made by urban road network vulnerability .From the perspective of the coupling relationship between vulnerable source and network vulnerability ,grey clustering method is adopted to establish the model with indexes .Defining the link belong to the first class as dangerous needs to release early warning in-formation and be improved .A part of the Huangshi City road network was used in the case to test the feasibility of the model ,and test how the clustering results changes if the road network traffic flow in-creases gradually ,w hich could cause cascading failures .%为尽可能降低由于城市路网存在脆弱性而造成的难以恢复的损失，路网脆弱性预警模型的建立非常必要。从脆弱源与路网脆弱性的复杂耦合关系出发，综合拓扑结构和流量运行状态，选取评价指标，采用灰色聚类的方法建立模型。将聚类结果属于第一灰类的路段定义为危险路段，需要发布预警信息并采取措施改善。实例分析采用黄石市某子路网，验证模型可行性，并研究在路网流量逐渐加大、考虑级联失效的情况下，聚类结果的变化情况。