The use of early warning systems for decision-making in humanitarian NGOs: Assessing capacities and vulnerabilities.

摘要

This thesis explores the relationship between decision-making, information, uncertainty and early warning systems. Early warning systems for natural and humanitarian disasters provide decision-makers with information that they can use to help mitigate the effects of a natural disaster or prevent a conflict from occurring. Despite many claims about the importance of early warning systems, these systems have not made extensive inroads into the routine operations of humanitarian organizations that respond to disasters. This thesis suggests that the organizational and individual decision-making processes of humanitarian organizations, together with the ways in which uncertainty is compounded in information gathering, can provide explanations as to why early warning systems are not more widespread. It provides a means by which organizations can begin to assess their capacities and vulnerabilities for early warning in the area of decision-making and information gathering.