客流量对城市轨道交通网络易损性的影响研究

摘要

采用考虑轨道交通网络特点的广义旅行时间模型结合基于Logit的随机用户均衡模型,分析了城市轨道交通网络站点间的旅行时间.将该旅行时间代入传统易损性的拓扑分析方法,建立了考虑站点能力限制的城市轨道交通网络易损性分析方法.利用该模型,可以定量的衡量:城市轨道交通网络各站点遭受不同模式的突发事件的破坏时的易损性.并以2008年北京市地铁网络为例,分析了客流量对城市轨道交通网络易损性的影响.结果表明,城市轨道交通的客流量规模与灾后站点破坏引发的流量重分配效应,都将影响各站点的易损性大小与易损性排序;特别是当网络客流量规模整体较大时,交通需求模式变化将显著影响各个站点的易损性指标;城市轨道交通网络站点的破坏程度与站点的易损性指标呈现非线性的正相关性.%Combining the Logit based Stochastic User Equilibrium and Generalized Travel Time model for the urban rail transit ,the travel time between the stations in the unban rail transit network was analyzed .A vulnerability analysis for the urban rail transit network incorporating the transport capac-ity constraint was presented in this paper by introducing the Generalized Travel Time into the tradi-tional topological approach .Based on the model ,the vulnerability of network in different emergency could be analyzed quantitatively .Moreover ,the influence of passenger flow capacity on the vulnera-bility of Beijing metro network in 2008 was studied .The results show that both magnitudes of OD de-mand and passenger flow reassigning effect among stations after disaster have influences on the assess-ment of vulnerability index and ranking of each metro station .Especially ,when the metro network was busy ,the change of OD demand patterns would impact on the vulnerability of stations distinctly .Thus ,a nonlinear positive correlation between the damage level of metro stations and vulnerability were found .