基于事件链及广义随机Petri网的洪涝灾害案例分析

摘要

针对2016年6月中下旬至7月初湖北省遭遇的大规模洪涝灾害,提取了由降水状态链、灾害演化链及行为处置链组成的事件链对案例进行描述;利用广义随机Petri网,对于灾害演化及行为处置中的部分过程进行了描述分析;并构建马尔科夫链模型,对于关键因素进行了要素分析;最终证实应急处置工作的迅速开展能有效遏制灾害的蔓延,降低灾害损失的程度.%Aiming at the large-scale flood disaster happened in Hubei province from late June to early July in 2016, this paper describes the case by extracting the event chain consisting of precipitation state chain, the disaster evolution chain, and the response disposition chain.Partial process of disaster evolution and response actions are analyzed based on generalized stochastic Petri net.A Markov chain is modeled to conduct the key factor analysis.Finally, confirmed that the rapid development of emergency disposal work can effectively curb the spread of disaster and reduce the extent of the damage.