交通运输业CO2排放区域差异及影响因素

摘要

交通运输业是CO2排放的重要来源.根据长江经济带九省二市2005-2014年面板数据,以Theil指数为衡量指标,从人均、单位增加值、单位换算周转量碳排放3个方面测算交通运输业CO2排放的区域差异;结合扩展的Kaya恒等式,通过LMDI分解分析交通运输业CO2排放的影响因素.结果表明:长江经济带各省市交通运输业CO2排放呈现较明显的不均衡分布,人均碳排放、单位换算周转量碳排放差异大于单位增加值碳排放差异;能源结构、单位增加值能耗、单位GDP换算周转量抑制CO2排放(贡献率分别为1.72％、56.6％、41.68％),单位换算周转量增加值、人均GDP、人口促进CO2排放(贡献率分别为7.99％、88.99％、3.02％).%Transportation industry is an important source of CO2 emission.According to panel data of Yangtze River Economic Belt (nine provinces and two cities) from 2005 to 2014,we measure the regional disparities of CO2 emission in transportation industry with Theil index from three aspects,such as CO2 emission per capita,per added value and per conversion turnover.Combining with the extended Kaya Identity,we analyze the influencing factors of CO2 emission in transportation industry by LMDI decomposition.The results show that there is obvious unbalanced distribution of CO2 emission in transportation industry of Yangtze River Economic Belt.The disparities of per capita and per conversion turnover are larger than that of per added value.Energy structure,energy consumption per added value and conversion turnover per GDP inhibit CO2 emission (inhabiting contribution rate:1.72％,56.6％ and 41.68％ respectively).Added value per conversion turnover,GDP per capita and population promote CO2 emission (promoting contribution rate:7.99％,88.99％ and 3.02％ respectively).