In order to successfully apply the cooperative adaptive cruise system to transportation,the key precondition is to ensure that the CACC vehicle on road can communicate with other vehicles within certain distance.The road can be discretized into uniform cells with the cellular automation concept.Based on it and the traffic flow theory,probability theory,a mathematical model is proposed to analyze the relations among the vehicle-to-vehicle communication probability and the market penetration rate of CACC vehicle,the traffic density (or occupancy),traffic speed,the time headway and the effective working distance of DSRC.The proposed model is tested by a large amount of numerical simulation experiments and real world traffic flow data obtained from the I880 freeway in California,USA.The results demonstrate that the our model is capable to estimate the vehicle-to-vehicle communication probability under the various traffic flow condition,different CACC vehicle market penetration rates and different DSRC effective distances,and will be the important basis of the application and propagation of CACC in the near future.%汽车协同式自适应巡航控制(CACC)系统成功应用的前提和关键,是要保证道路上的CACC车辆能与一定距离范围内的其他车辆进行互联通信.本文依据元胞自动机的基本思想,将道路离散成均匀一致的格子单元系统,并基于交通流理论和概率论,构建了车—车通信概率与CACC车辆市场占有率、交通流密度(或占有率)、速度、车头时距,以及DSRC有效作用距离之间的数学关系模型.通过大量的数值模拟实验和美国加州I880高速公路交通流数据对模型进行分析测试,表明该模型可分析不同交通流状态下道路上不同CACC车辆市场占有率,DSRC有效作用距离时的车—车通信概率.本文的研究成果对于未来促进CACC车辆的推广应用具有重要意义.
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