基于交通流理论的公交站点间行程时间预测

摘要

分析了公交站点间车辆运行过程,将行程预测时间划分为交叉口排队等待时间、路段行驶时间和停站时间3个部分,利用交通波理论和延误三角形,分别建立了无公交专用车道和有公交专用车道2种情况下排队等待时间的动态预测模型；根据乘客到站规律和上下车规律,提出了公交车进站停靠时间模型；针对无公交专用车道条件下的时间预测方法进行了实例演算.实验数据表明,基于交通波行程时间预测方法具有较高的精度,可以满足站点间行程时间预报要求.%This paper analyzed vehicle operation between bus stations, and divided travel prediction time into three parts: waiting time, link travel time and dwell time. Traffic wave theory and delay triangle were used to establish the dynamic prediction model of queue waiting time for regular lanes and bus lanes respectively. Dwelling time model was proposed according to the regular passengers arriving and getting off patterns. An example was presented to test the model of regular lanes. The experimental data show that the traffic wave-based prediction method has a higher precision to meet the prediction requirement of travel time between bus stops.