中国省际人口迁移空间特征与影响因素分析

摘要

采用全国第六次人口普查的省际人口迁移及相关社会经济等数据,首先分析省际迁移人口的空间分布特征,然后利用全局Moran'sⅠ指数考察了省际人口迁移流中的网络自相关性,再构建基于网络自相关的特征向量空间过滤模型对省际人口迁移的动力机制进行分析,并与引力模型的回归结果进行对比验证,揭示网络自相关影响下省际人口迁移的动力机制.结果表明:(1)省际迁入及净迁入人口主要集中在我国三大经济圈,省际迁出人口主要分布于我国中南部;省际总迁移人口积聚于三大经济圈及中南部地区.(2)省际人口迁入、迁出流存在网络自相关,对人口迁移动力建模时应考虑网络自相关因素.文中加入了网络自相关因素后的特征向量空间过滤模型的拟合水平整体优于引力模型,较成功地揭示了人口迁移流中的网络自相关效应,减少了对其他变量的有偏估计.(3)非网络自相关变量中,人口总量、经济及距离因素对人口迁移活动的影响较大.%Using interprovincial migration data from the sixth national census in China and other relevant natural and socioeconomic data,the spatial distribution characteristics of interprovincial migration in China are analyzed,then the network autocorrelation among the interprovincial migration flows is investigated with global Moran's I,and an eigenvector spatial filtering model is established,which takes network autocorrelation into account to explore the influencing factors of the interprovincial migration.Specially,the regression results of the eigenvector spatial filtering model are compared with those of conventional gravity model,and thus the driving mechanism of China's interprovincial migration is effectively revealed.The results show that:(1) Provinces with high immigration and net immigration are mainly concentrated in China's three Economy Zone of the Pearl River Delta,Yangtze Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions.Provinces with high out-migration are mainly distributed in provinces of Anhui,Henan,Sichuan and Hunan.Provinces with high total migration are mainly located in the Pearl River Delta,Yangtze Delta,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and south central China regions.(2) There exists network autocorrelation phenomenon in China's interprovincial migration behavior,of which immigration flows and out-migration flows are affected by the neighboring immigration or outmigration flows,thus network autocorrelation should be considered when modeling the driving mechanism of migration.Also,regression results indicate that the eigenvector spatial filtering model incorporating network autocorrelation factors has a better model fit than the gravity model,reveals successfully network autocorrelation effect among the interprovincial migration flows of China and reduces the biased estimation of non-network autocorrelation variables.(3) Among the non-network autocorrelation variables,total population,economy and distance are three important factors that influence the migration behavior.